The Building of The Indian Nation

   Part  I of my Book 

The foundation stone of the Indian nation was laid down from times unknown, way back in past millennium. The beginning of the nationalist movement in Bharat i.e. India would be incomplete if we do not evaluate and study the Indian people, their classes, race, varied culture and religion. Indian civilisation is one of the oldest in the world. An evaluation and analytical study of Hindu mythology and writings reveals and produces it as the oldest. Hence it becomes essential and desirable to bring forward a comparative study, of the facts and findings which has resulted in the writing of the history by the historians, vis-à-vis our Holy scripts, granths and other factors essential and desirable for proper understanding of the current history. There are several contradictory facts and discrepancy, due to the illogical conclusion drawn in printing the History which is described hereunder, and which has lead me to believe of the factual untrustworthy character of our ancient history. This History is written and composed by European historians, who themselves do not claim to possess an ancient civilisation and history like ours. I am producing both these views for logical evaluation and appraisal of the subject. The analysis includes the study of the golden era of Indian economy, and the reasons and methods instrumental in building the Indian economy to be called as “Sonay Ki Chiriyaa”.

The origin of the people and its races in India are not clear, as of the origin of Man (Homo Sapiens). Our ancestors inherited a multiple and confusing race of culture and language of people.  Civic society or organised socio-political civilisation first took shape

within a narrow geographical compass that covered Egypt in the West, Indus valley in the East, Anatolia (Asia Minor) in the north, and Sumeria (Iraq & Iran) in the West.

  

Civilisation radiated outwards from these centres, reaching the Mediterranean Sea board and the islands in the West. The first cities were very small affairs centred around the temples. Very soon some temples became more prominent and the high priests of these temples became the first city chiefs. Very soon some temples became more prominent and the high priests of these temples become the first states. Among the earliest of these states found and excavated were those of Indus valley, Sumeria and Egypt. The Indus valley Civilisation is the last of the great civilisations to be discovered. Though a late–corner to the history books, the Indus civilisation is the oldest of the great civilisation known. Recent research in Mehrgarh and other sites in the Indus valley, through carbon-14 samples analysis has shown that the structure were of a period ranging from 6000 B.C to 7000 BC.  Earlier structure must therefore belong to a period beyond prior to these dates.

The racial origin of the Egyptian is also a matter of dispute. Some regard them as a conquering Asian race acquainted with metallurgy and armed with superior weapons, who easily triumphed over the tribes inhabiting in the Nile Valley in Neolithic times.  Sumeria was in the lower valley of the Euphrates and Tigris, in the southern half of Mesopotamia. We do not know who the Sumerians were, and are compared by some to Turanians of today and others to the Dravidian’s of India.

The influence of Hindu culture and civilisation in their way of life was found in all these ancient civilisations, which includes the building of temples and priests. The trace of Hindu influence and its gods are mentioned in history. There are further traces of mention of Hindu Gods and dietaries, in the treaties of that period. It is also evident that there was interaction between these civilisations from times unknown. The river Indus, is called by Aryans as Sindhu, has lent its name to India. Its valleys on both sides have been the seat of a civilisation that was not only older but also superior in many respects to the fabled civilisation of Sumeria and Egypt. This historic river has five major tributaries- rises from Mount Kailash in Tibet (known as the Holy mountain of lord Shiva as per Hindu Mythology), and traverses many miles through the Himalayas, thereby crossing Kashmir and Punjab (land of five rivers) and Sindh before falling into the Arabian Sea.

Archaeological excavation and research has shown that, a species known as Ramapithecus was found in the Siwalik foothill of the North- western Himalayas. This species believed to be the first in the line of hominids (human life) lived some 14 million years ago. Recent research has shown that a species resembling the Australopithecus lived in India some 2 million years ago. Little research is done in this matter and leaves an evolution Gap of 12 million years since Ramapithecus. Geographically the Indian sub-continent was a separate Island from the main land Asia, some 50 million years ago.  The continent drifted and joined into the main Asia continent later on and as per these writing it appears that our civilisation was much older than claimed and perhaps the oldest and the most advanced in the world.

The Himalayan range being artificial mountain, essentially not made from volcanic eruptions of Volcano’s, but made from the crust of the drifting of the Indian/Jumbo Deep peninsula to the main land Asia more than 50 million years ago. If we study our rich Sanskrit Granths, slogans, scripts and followings, we find the Indian continent was called Jumbo deep (meaning thereby big island), Bharat Knanday (Indian part), by the writers, sages and Brahmins. In the traditional and legendary cosmography of the Hindus, it is part of Bharat- Varsa to the south of Meru (Golden Mountain).

History states that in 6000 B.C there were two great civilisations, the Neolithic settlements of Mehrgarh, Baluchistan and the Indus valley. That is the period that the first civilisation and city life was discovered, which included domestication of cattle, water buffalo, sheep and goats. Century 5000 BC is said to be the period in which Indus valley civilisation developed farming of wheat, cotton and barley, fruit trees pottery, beads and jujube and also date was discovered. 4000 BC is marked in the history as the invention of pottery wheels and bow drill in the Indus valley, klinfired pottery, red painted wares, beads of local stones and copper melting.

History and the gazetteer of India states that some time in the 2^nd millennium BC a new race generally called Aryans or Indo-Aryans entered India. Before that period the Indus valley civilisation developed and flourished in an Area now known as Pakistan, Afghanistan and Baluchistan. In the 2^nd millennium B.C, they started moving from their original homeland and migrated westwards, southwards and eastwards. The branch, which went to Europe, were the ancestors of Greeks, Romans, Celts and Teutons. Another branch went to Anatolia. The great empire of the Hittites grew up from the mixture of these people with the original inhabitants. Those who moved southwards came into conflict with the west Asian civilisation.

The Kassites, who conquered Babylon, belong to this stock. In the excavation at Boghaz-Koi in Asia Minor, which date about 1400 BC inscriptions are found containing the names of Deities like Indra, Varuna and Nasatya. These gods are also mentioned in Rig- Veda. To the same period as Boghaz-Koi, belong the clay tablets with cuneiform script discovered at Tell el –Amara in Egypt where references are found of prices of Mitanni in Northwest Mesopotamia, bearing Indo-Aryan names. There is no evidence or inscription anywhere in the history, which proves the movement of Aryans from Central Asia to India which, was named as Bharat or Hindustan by our ancestors.

Sumeria one of the oldest civilisations has close similarities in the field of religion and mythology of India.  Indian philosophy and religion made a deep impression on the Iranians. Indian culture influenced Iran and their relations with Indians, which as per Historian are, traced back to third millennium BC. The medieval period saw Capliphs encourage the translation into Persian of Indian treaties on medicine and astronomy. Arabs borrowed the Hindu system of numerals (i.e. the number system) from India and they spread it all over the world. The Puranas (the Indian History of old narratives) mentions about Samba (a son of Krishna) who is stated to have brought the Maga (Indian form of Magi, the sun- worshipping priest of Iran) into India. These East Iranian (Sakadvip) were brought in India into early centuries of Christian era, and were/ are known as Sakaldvipi Brahmin’s in India. Various other literary and archaeological data bears evidence in this regard. These Brahmin’s have been integrated in the Indian Society and settled as far as Bihar and one of them happens to be my priest. The Chatta Puja of Bihar is probably one of the Indicators of a strong cult of Sun- Worshipers in Bihar, brought by these Brahmins.  The Indus valley civilisation(also Known as Harrapa and Mohanjodaro Civilisation) is continued and extended with proto-Hararappan Civilisation and culture in Sindh, Punjab and Rajasthan. Among those excavated and studies by archaeologist the KaliBhanga and Armi Culture assumes significant importance. Kali Bhanga in Rajasthan is situated on Ancient Saraswati, now called Ghaggar. Potteries made of six fabrics, all wheel made were found by excavators and these fabrics and form show a close affinity with the Iranian and Baluchistan pottery. Among the excavated samples, Carbon –14 sample of a pottery in Kali -bhanga dates as to 2245  +/- 115 B.C. The author of the excavation thought it to be superior to Harrapa objects. Amri culture Potteries Carbon sample dates it to a date before 2,500 B.C. Indian mythology at various place mentions Sumeria and its culture.

Imperialism was the dominating factor in the Indian politics before the end of Vedic age (as defined by historians), and it was symbolised by the time honoured Ashvamedha sacrifice. The Aitereya Brahamana mentions no less than twelve Kings who “went everywhere, conquering the earth, upto its ends, and sacrificed the sacrificial horse.” Three of them, as well as several other Kings, are stated in the Satapatha Brahamana to have performed Ashvamedha sacrifices. The Puranas reckons Parikshit (the grand son of Pandavas brother Arjun) as the founder of a new dynasty, the Paurava, and give a list of thirty kings belonging to it. Parikshit and his son and the successor Janamejaya loom large in Mahabharat, and the latter is mentioned in the Aitareya Brahamana as one of the twelve universal sovereigns. The great Bharat war according to the Mahabharat was fought with a view to bringing the whole of India under one political authority, and this was successfully accomplished by the decisive victory of Pandavas. But this political unity did not last long.

The Indian culture, religion, education, spread and influenced almost every corner of eastern Asia, which includes China, Thailand, Malaya, Burma, Indonesia, Java & Sumatra, Japan etc. as mentioned in history. Indian cultural influence extended to west and Central Asia as well. There was no attempt at political expansion in the west; this cultural expansion was so much that it extended further. There was an Indian Kingdom in Khotan alleged to have been founded by a son of emperor Ashoka. Buddhism was introduced in that kingdom more than a century after its establishment. Both Sanskrit and Prakrt were studied in Khotan. The whole of central Asia was a meeting place different culture and it was a silk route between Rome and China.

 Chinese Turkestan named and called by Sir Aurel Stein as the innermost heart of Asia, and the remains in Turkestan finds at different sites explored or excavated by archaeologists have established beyond doubt that a large number of Indians had migrated from Punjab and Kashmir and settled in the Tarim basin where they built numerous cities. Indian thought were so firmly planted that when Sir Stein was exploring that region he felt as if he was in some Punjab, village although he was 3,220m Kms away from the land.

 History prints the oldest civilisation existed in Indus valley before 6000 BC, and the Dravidian’s built this highly civilised big town. The Aryans that were a pastoral race might have come to India some 2000 years ago. Though it is not exactly known what happened to the Indus people or their civilisation, it may be assumed that they intermingled with the incoming Aryans who adopted the Indian culture on their own. The Dravidian’s were Shaviks, the Idol worshipers of the Lord Shiva, and were perhaps the builders of city civilisation of the Indus valley, the remains of which are found at Mohenjo-daro and Harrapa and other Indus cities. If we look at the great Eliphata Caves found in the coastal island of Mumbai, the large big old statues, there tells the story that the Dravidian culture existed and flourished in India much before the Aryan culture. This is what the historian and Archaeologists say about the Indus valley civilisation.

 Excavation at Sangan Kalla, Mysore and at several places in India, have yielded evidence to show that in this region, microliths are of considerable antiquity, positively before the Neolithic or polished Axe Culture or the beginning of Agriculture, as dated and described by the Historians.

It is strange reality, that the European Historians (who do not have or challenge the antiquity of their History) have written the Indian History, and in doing so, have totally ignored the Indian writings and date chronology, to the extent that they have also dated the composition of Veda at around 1500 BC and 900 BC as the age of Mahabharat. In doing so they have rejected most of the writing of their own renowned Historians.

The Englishmen in their context of writing history have omitted valuable findings which did not suit their long-term strategic interest in India and have deliberately drafted the history which is most conflicting and damaging. In their bid to write history the Englishmen made Archaeology, Epigraphy, geography, culture religion and science as their source of writings. They have wrongly, deliberately named and accepted certain dates being the date of the writing of our Holy Granths and knowingly left some Granths as being the writings’ of Epic age. Most of the source of writing which conflicted their version of History was not considered and left out as unreliable and now desires a second look in the current world context.

On Inflation its Causes and suggestions

I had  stated in my earlier report   that India’s has one of the largest  arable land  which is second only to that of the United States, its economy is one of the fastest growing in the world, and its industrial innovation is legendary. India ranks second worldwide in farm output.  Agriculture and allied sectors like forestry, logging and fishing accounted for 15.7% of the GDP in 2009–10, employed 52.1% of the total workforce, and despite a steady decline of its share in the GDP, is still the largest economic sector and a significant piece of the overall socio-economic development of India. But when it comes to agriculture, its output lags far behind potential.

There can be no Green Revolution without adequate irrigation and fertilizer, which is consistently deteriorating due to the faulty policies of the Government. The Current Budget has given nothing to the Agriculture and there is little emphasis in this direction. In fact the fertilizer subsidy for the year 2011-12 has been pegged down (at Rs. 49,998 crores), which is lower than the revised estimates for 2010-011 (Rs. 54,976 Crores).

 The same is here reflected in the RBI report.

  Man Mohan Singh is following the Expenditure method of progress and hence pumping a lot of money in the Indian Economy by way of Deficit financing which is revealed hereby by RBI report. I am hereby elaborating the GDP calculation data for ready reference:-

GDP can be determined in three ways, all of which should, in principle, give the same result. They are the product (or output) approach, the income approach, and the expenditure approach.

The most direct of the three is the product approach, which sums the outputs of every class of enterprise to arrive at the total. The expenditure approach works on the principle that all of the product must be bought by somebody, therefore the value of the total product must be equal to people's total expenditures in buying things. The income approach works on the principle that the incomes of the productive factors ("producers," colloquially) must be equal to the value of their product, and determines GDP by finding the sum of all producers' incomes.

Example: the expenditure method:

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or

Note: "Gross" means that GDP measures production regardless of the various uses to which that production can be put. Production can be used for immediate consumption, for investment in new fixed assets or inventories, or for replacing depreciated fixed assets. "Domestic" means that GDP measures production that takes place within the country's borders. In the expenditure-method equation given above, the exports-minus-imports term is necessary in order to null out expenditures on things not produced in the country (imports) and add in things produced but not sold in the country (exports).

Economists (since Keynes) have preferred to split the general consumption term into two parts; private consumption, and public sector (or government) spending. Two advantages of dividing total consumption this way in theoretical macroeconomics are:

•           Private consumption is a central concern of welfare economics. The private investment and trade portions of the economy are ultimately directed (in mainstream economic models) to increases in long-term private consumption.

•           If separated from endogenous private consumption, government consumption can be treated as exogenous, so that different government spending levels can be considered within a meaningful macroeconomic framework.

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA

First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12

17. Inflation continues to be the dominant macroeconomic concern. The headline WPI inflation rate was 9.7 per cent in April 2011. The provisional inflation figure was 9.1 per cent in May 2011 and 9.4 per cent in June. Given the recent pattern, these numbers these numbers are likely to be revised upwards. Thus, the headline WPI inflation rate for Q1 of

2011-12 remained stubbornly close to double digits and inflationary pressures continued to remain broad-based. Both the level and the persistence of WPI inflation are a cause for concern.

25. The Reserve Bank’s estimates show that the total flow of financial resources from banks, domestic  non-bank and external sources to the commercial sector during Q1 of 2011-12 was lower at ` 2,40,000 crore as compared with ` 2,63,000 crore during the corresponding period of last year.

30. During April-May 2011, the Central Government’s revenue deficit and fiscal deficit turned out to be higher than the levels during the corresponding period of the previous year reflecting lower revenue receipts and higher expenditure. Up to July 18, 2011, the Central Government completed 34 per cent of its budgeted net market borrowing programme, as compared with 37 per cent in the corresponding period of last year.

38. It is important to recognise that in the absence of appropriate actions for addressing supply bottlenecks, especially in food and infrastructure, questions about the ability of the economy to sustain the current growth rate without significant inflationary pressures come to the fore. The economy's ability to grow rapidly for any length of time without provoking inflation is dependent on implementing policies, with corresponding resource allocations, which will allow the supply of various products and services to keep pace with demand.

40. First, prices of petroleum products such as petrol, diesel, kerosene and LPG were raised in May/June 2011. The increase in administered petroleum product prices in June 2011 will add about 70 basis points to WPI inflation as a direct impact. In addition, there will be an indirect impact which will play out during the course of the year. There will be further upward pressure on inflation due to another one-off factor. The sharp upward revision in domestic crude prices under the minerals category, with a weight of 0.9 per cent in WPI, added about 40 bps to WPI inflation in April 2011. A similar impact may be

felt in March 2012 unless crude prices moderate significantly.

41. Second, minimum support prices (MSPs) for some agricultural commodities, particularly rice and pulses, were increased significantly. This is likely to exert upward pressure on food inflation even if the harvest is good.

42. Third, non-food manufacturing inflation persists at elevated levels, reflecting underlying demand pressures. While early corporate results for Q1 of 2011-12 indicate some moderation in margins, suggesting reduced pricing power, the pass-through of higher commodity prices into more generalized inflation remains significant.

43. Going forward, the inflation outlook will be shaped by the following factors. First, it will depend on the overall performance of the south-west monsoon. Even if there is no major deficiency at the aggregate level, an appropriate spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the whole season is crucial. As price pressures in respect of protein-rich

items persist, any shortfall in rainfall or its pattern could pose significant risks to food inflation.

47. Keeping in view the domestic demand-supply balance, the global trends in commodity prices and the likely demand scenario, the baseline projection for WPI            inflation for March 2012 is revised upward from 6.0 per cent with an upside bias, as indicated in the May 3 Policy Statement, to 7.0 per cent (Chart 2). As indicated in the May 3 Policy Statement, inflation is expected to remain at an elevated level for a few more months, before moderating towards the later part of the year.

Risk Factor

51  (iv) The Central Government budgeted a fiscal deficit of 4.6 per cent of GDP for 2011-12. Subsequent developments have made the achievement of this target much more of a challenge. On the expenditure side, the subsidy burden will, in all likelihood, overshoot the budgeted amount in 2011-12 significantly, despite the recent revision in petroleum product prices. On the revenue side, while the tax cuts announced in June 2011, as part of the upward price adjustment of petroleum products, will primarily help in

bringing down the magnitude of under-recoveries of oil marketing companies (OMCs), the revenue loss to the Central Government from such tax cuts (about 0.3 per cent of DP) will impact both the fiscal and revenue deficits. The large fiscal deficit has been a key source of demand pressures. Fiscal consolidation is, therefore, critical to managing      inflation. While meeting quantitative targets, the Government also needs to focus on the quality of expenditure to sustain the fiscal consolidation process, which, in turn, will help contain aggregate demand and raise potential output.

CRISIL Research, India’s leading Rating, Research, Risk and policy Advisory Company reports  on RBI :- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its first quarter review of monetary policy 2011-12, continued with its aggressive anti-inflationary stance. It raised the repo rate by a higher than-expected 50 basis points (bps) to 8.0 per cent. This is the eleventh successive increase in the policy rate since March 2010. Consequently, the reverse repo rate and marginal standing facility (MSF) rate have been revised up to 7.0 and 9.0 per cent, respectively. This rate increase, which came in the midst of slowing industrial growth, is a clear signal from the RBI that it remains committed to inflation control and is willing to accept a slowdown in economic growth in the short run. The central bank has also taken into account the elevated inflationary expectations in food prices, and its resultant effect on wages. In addition, domestic fuel prices have been only partly aligned to global crude oil prices, which have risen sharply over the last one year. However, despite this rate increase, inflation will continue to persist above the RBI’s comfort zone throughout 2011-12. The RBI has revised upwards its March 2012 WPI (Wholesale Price Index) inflation projection to 7 per cent from the earlier projection of 6 per cent with an upward bias.

GDP growth to moderate as cumulative interest rate hikes begin to impact

Industrial growth fell to 5.6 per cent in May 2011 from 8.5 per cent in the same month last  year, mainly due to poor performance of the manufacturing and mining sectors. IIP (Index of Industrial Production) data for April 2011 has been revised downward to 5.8 per cent from 6.3 per cent reported earlier. This indicates sluggish industrial growth in the economy. Capital goods also grew by a mere 5.9 per cent in May as compared to 7.3 per cent(revised downward from the earlier estimate of 14.5 per cent) in the previous month. With the capital goods’ growth slowing to 6.6 per cent in the first two months of 2011-12

compared to 25.6 per cent in the same period last year, investment activity in the economy has clearly slowed down. As a result, capital goods production is expected to remain sluggish in the coming months. However, while private consumption growth has

moderated since the third quarter of 2010-11, it remained robust at around 8 per cent in

the fourth quarter of 2010-11. Overall, GDP growth would moderate in 2011-12 to 7.7-8.0 per cent, assuming a normal monsoon, compared to 8.5 per cent in 2010-11. It is critical that demand side pressures are reigned in to control core inflation.

Inflation remains stubbornly above 9 per cent Inflation reached 9.4 per cent in June 2011 as compared to 9.1 per cent in May 2011. Also, inflation for April 2011 has been revised to 9.7 per cent from 8.7 per cent reported earlier. The push in inflation in June came from manufactured goods and food items. Overall, food inflation (primary and manufacturing) in June rose to 8.4 per cent as compared to 8.0 per cent in the previous month. Fuel inflation during the month rose to 12.8 per cent following an increase in petrol and diesel prices. Manufacturing inflation in June remained high, rising to 7.9 per cent from 7.7 per cent in the previous month. Core inflation (non-food manufacturing inflation) in June continued to be firm as well at 7.8 per cent, same as in the previous month, indicating firm demand. If consumption remains robust, an increase in the cost of production due to the fuel price rise will be passed on by producers to consumers thereby further raising manufacturing inflation. In this situation, the RBI will continue with its anti-inflationary stance.

In view of the elevated inflationary pressures, CRISIL Research has raised its average

WPI inflation forecast for 2011-12 by 50 bps to 8.0-8.5 per cent.

The true Picture of Maneconomics ( Man Mohan Singh's Economic Policy)

Agriculture is the predominant occupation in India, accounting for 60% of employment,service sector makes up 28% and industrial sector 12%. In terms of output, the agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the service and industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. India's GDP is US$1.089 trillion, which makes it the twelfth-largest economy in the world or fourth largest by purchasing power adjusted exchange rates. India is fifteenth in services output and it provides employment to 23% of work force, and it is growing fast, growth rate 7.5% in 1991–2000 up from 4.5% in 1951–80. It has the largest share in the GDP, accounting for 55% in 2007. India's IT industry, despite contributing significantly to its balance of payments, accounted for only about 1% of the total GDP or 1/50th of the total services in 2001.

Statistics of the WTO in 2006, India's total merchandise trade (export + import) was valued at 294 billion dollars in 2006 and India's services trade inclusive of export and import was 143 billion dollars. According to the CIA Factbook (2007), India is a net importer. Total imports stood at US$224 billion and exports were US$140 billion. International trade as a proportion of GDP reached 24% by 2006, still relatively moderate.India currently accounts for 1.2% of World trade as of 2006 according to the WTO. Until the liberalisation of 1991, India was largely and intentionally isolated from the world markets, to protect its fledging economy and to achieve self-reliance.The FDI inflow for 2007-08 has been reported as $24bn. This is mainly due to the heavy returns the FII’s are making due to the speculative returns gained, through Induan Stock market’s.    In 2006, remittances from Indian migrants overseas made up $27 billion or about 3% of India's GDP.

The Indian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has come a long way since its balance of payment downturn in the 80's. This can be largely attributed to its open policies under prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2003, attracting high influx of foreign investors. India's BPO sector and service industry has also benefited from its rapid growth of information technology, further strengthening its impressive growth and thus providing promising outlook for future growth. The contribution of IT to GDP increased to 4.8 % in 2005-06 was projected to increase to 7% of GDP in 2008 which never materialised due to faulty policies of UPA Govt.

India's nominal per capita income US$977 is ranked 128th in the world. 85.7% of the Indian population is living on less than $2.50 (PPP) a day in 2005, compared with 80.5% for Sub-Saharan Africa, with over 83.6 Crores of the Indian population earning an income of less than Rs. 20 per day. Half of children are underweight, one of the highest rates in the world and nearly double the rate of Sub-Saharan Africa.          

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the sum of all Goods and Services produced in a Country. This sum is the value measured in terms of Rupee. Inflation in general terms is defined, as more money chasing few goods. Hence a mild inflation is necessary to keep the economy progressing. India's projected a lower inflation rate in 2008 from the 5.77% reported in 2007. By July 2008, the Key Indian Inflation Rate has surpassed the 11% mark to become the highest rate recorded in 13 years, and almost three times as high as the 4.1% targeted by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2007. However an Hyper Inflation (as off today) is very tricky, as the value of goods produced in terms of Indian rupee is inflated hence leading to increase in the figure of goods and services produced in a country which automatically pushes the GDP of the country, without effecting the  real production of goods and services in the country, hence reflecting artificial growth.

 Stock Exchanges are defined as the "Barometer of the Economy". Shares, securities and Bonds of various companies and PSU's are listed and openly traded daily here, by the investors and institutions. Hence those Companies and sectors of the Industries that are performing well are in demand; and their prices are ever rising. Manomohan Singh’ tenure as a Finance and currently as the Prime Minister has seen the Largest Fluctuation of Indian Stock Market, where the market has seen the highest up-swings and downwards speculative movements, inviting speculative trading instead of investment’s in the economy, the basic purpose which the Stock exchanges serve. The Indian Public has lost heavily in this period, at the cost of FII’s and financially strong and prudent Institutions. On 24th October 2008 the Indian Investors  had lost Rs. 3.3 Lakh Crores in a Single Day.

The Capital Market Survey of Data for 2000 Companies in India in Aug 13, 2007 issue reported the Huge Jump in other Income of companies mainly due to large gains on hedging foreign exchange (Forex) receivables and translation of forex liabilities. Companies that have raised substantial funds in forex were major gainers. The sharp rise in rupee against dollar and increase in refinery margin lifted profit and/or reduced the losses of PSU oil refineries. Forex gains helped Airlines to post Profit against loss. The Air conditioner industry had an exceptionally strong quarter due to high demand growth as well as benefits from rupee appreciation.  Similar is the case of Commodity exchange where prices of food grains were hiked and manipulated and is speculative, though in actual terms the economy of goods (both Agriculture and industrial) has not shown any positive growth. Industrial output, which has been slowing down for some time with industrial production for October 08 down - 0.4% from the 12.2 %  from  Oct ’07, -1.2% in Feb 2009, -2.3% in March ‘09. This is the first time in 15 years that year to year growth has been negative for any month.

All major economic indicators are showing signs of negative growth. Due to global depression there is large scale un-employment and worker and employees are regular losing jobs and facing pay scale cuts. Interestingly the industrial growth has picked is up 2.7 % in May’09 to 8.2% in June’09 in consonance with the price rise, and immediately after the UPA was voted to power. The growth to a certain respect is due to mining growth of 9.9% in July mainly due to KG basin gas production and cement production growth of 17.75% in August ’09. Still there are no signs of stopping of inflation and goods of common man use have risen to sky high prices. This is despite the fact that our Prime Minister and his team are well known economist and the P.M has served the RBI as an employee and Governor for several years. Hence he is well versed with the Monetary and Fiscal measures employed to control Indian inflation and price rise. Maneconomics has always been aimed with a short term gain and based more on the supply of money rather than other realistic measures which would serve the long term strategic interest of the country. The blame for price rise is shifted on state Govt. though all Macro and Micro economic measures to control price rise is with the Central Govt. It appears that the Manmohan Singh’s government is purposely promoting inflation in order to show higher GDP growth, though in actual production and quantitative terms the Indian gross Domestic Production is showing a negative growth. It is this window dressing approach of Central Government that is hampering the overall long term economic growth of the country.

Reported and published in Nov 8, 2009 Organiser